在本文中,我们提出了一种基于短期内存网络的长期方法,以根据过去的测量值预测公共建筑物的能源消耗。我们的方法包括三个主要步骤:数据处理步骤,培训和验证步骤,最后是预测步骤。我们在一个数据集上测试了我们的方法,该数据集由英国国家档案馆的主要建筑物的主要建筑物,在KEW中,作为评估指标,我们使用了平均绝对错误(MAE)和平均绝对百分比错误(Mape)。
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本文比较分析随机森林的性能和基于历史数据预测能源消耗的领域的梯度增强算法的性能。应用两种算法以单独预测能源消耗,然后使用加权平均合奏方法合并在一起。所达到的实验结果之间的比较证明,加权平均合奏方法比单独应用的两种算法中的每种都提供了更准确的结果。
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对于工业规模的广告系统,对广告点击率(CTR)的预测是一个核心问题。广告点击构成了一类重要的用户参与,通常用作广告对用户有用的主要信号。此外,在每次点击收费的广告系统中,单击费用期望值直接输入价值估计。因此,对于大多数互联网广告公司而言,CTR模型开发是一项重大投资。此类问题的工程需要许多适合在线学习的机器学习(ML)技术,这些技术远远超出了传统的准确性改进,尤其是有关效率,可重复性,校准,信用归因。我们介绍了Google搜索广告CTR模型中部署的实用技术的案例研究。本文提供了一项行业案例研究,该研究强调了当前的ML研究的重要领域,并说明了如何评估有影响力的新ML方法并在大型工业环境中有用。
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Explainability is a vibrant research topic in the artificial intelligence community, with growing interest across methods and domains. Much has been written about the topic, yet explainability still lacks shared terminology and a framework capable of providing structural soundness to explanations. In our work, we address these issues by proposing a novel definition of explanation that is a synthesis of what can be found in the literature. We recognize that explanations are not atomic but the product of evidence stemming from the model and its input-output and the human interpretation of this evidence. Furthermore, we fit explanations into the properties of faithfulness (i.e., the explanation being a true description of the model's decision-making) and plausibility (i.e., how much the explanation looks convincing to the user). Using our proposed theoretical framework simplifies how these properties are ope rationalized and provide new insight into common explanation methods that we analyze as case studies.
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System identification, also known as learning forward models, transfer functions, system dynamics, etc., has a long tradition both in science and engineering in different fields. Particularly, it is a recurring theme in Reinforcement Learning research, where forward models approximate the state transition function of a Markov Decision Process by learning a mapping function from current state and action to the next state. This problem is commonly defined as a Supervised Learning problem in a direct way. This common approach faces several difficulties due to the inherent complexities of the dynamics to learn, for example, delayed effects, high non-linearity, non-stationarity, partial observability and, more important, error accumulation when using bootstrapped predictions (predictions based on past predictions), over large time horizons. Here we explore the use of Reinforcement Learning in this problem. We elaborate on why and how this problem fits naturally and sound as a Reinforcement Learning problem, and present some experimental results that demonstrate RL is a promising technique to solve these kind of problems.
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AI-based code generators are an emerging solution for automatically writing programs starting from descriptions in natural language, by using deep neural networks (Neural Machine Translation, NMT). In particular, code generators have been used for ethical hacking and offensive security testing by generating proof-of-concept attacks. Unfortunately, the evaluation of code generators still faces several issues. The current practice uses automatic metrics, which compute the textual similarity of generated code with ground-truth references. However, it is not clear what metric to use, and which metric is most suitable for specific contexts. This practical experience report analyzes a large set of output similarity metrics on offensive code generators. We apply the metrics on two state-of-the-art NMT models using two datasets containing offensive assembly and Python code with their descriptions in the English language. We compare the estimates from the automatic metrics with human evaluation and provide practical insights into their strengths and limitations.
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This project explores the feasibility of remote patient monitoring based on the analysis of 3D movements captured with smartwatches. We base our analysis on the Kinematic Theory of Rapid Human Movement. We have validated our research in a real case scenario for stroke rehabilitation at the Guttmann Institute5 (neurorehabilitation hospital), showing promising results. Our work could have a great impact in remote healthcare applications, improving the medical efficiency and reducing the healthcare costs. Future steps include more clinical validation, developing multi-modal analysis architectures (analysing data from sensors, images, audio, etc.), and exploring the application of our technology to monitor other neurodegenerative diseases.
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Assessing the physical condition in rehabilitation scenarios is a challenging problem, since it involves Human Activity Recognition (HAR) and kinematic analysis methods. In addition, the difficulties increase in unconstrained rehabilitation scenarios, which are much closer to the real use cases. In particular, our aim is to design an upper-limb assessment pipeline for stroke patients using smartwatches. We focus on the HAR task, as it is the first part of the assessing pipeline. Our main target is to automatically detect and recognize four key movements inspired by the Fugl-Meyer assessment scale, which are performed in both constrained and unconstrained scenarios. In addition to the application protocol and dataset, we propose two detection and classification baseline methods. We believe that the proposed framework, dataset and baseline results will serve to foster this research field.
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We consider a model where a signal (discrete or continuous) is observed with an additive Gaussian noise process. The signal is issued from a linear combination of a finite but increasing number of translated features. The features are continuously parameterized by their location and depend on some scale parameter. First, we extend previous prediction results for off-the-grid estimators by taking into account here that the scale parameter may vary. The prediction bounds are analogous, but we improve the minimal distance between two consecutive features locations in order to achieve these bounds. Next, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for the model and give non-asymptotic upper bounds of the testing risk and of the minimax separation rate between two distinguishable signals. In particular, our test encompasses the signal detection framework. We deduce upper bounds on the minimal energy, expressed as the 2-norm of the linear coefficients, to successfully detect a signal in presence of noise. The general model considered in this paper is a non-linear extension of the classical high-dimensional regression model. It turns out that, in this framework, our upper bound on the minimax separation rate matches (up to a logarithmic factor) the lower bound on the minimax separation rate for signal detection in the high dimensional linear model associated to a fixed dictionary of features. We also propose a procedure to test whether the features of the observed signal belong to a given finite collection under the assumption that the linear coefficients may vary, but do not change to opposite signs under the null hypothesis. A non-asymptotic upper bound on the testing risk is given. We illustrate our results on the spikes deconvolution model with Gaussian features on the real line and with the Dirichlet kernel, frequently used in the compressed sensing literature, on the torus.
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This study concerns the formulation and application of Bayesian optimal experimental design to symbolic discovery, which is the inference from observational data of predictive models taking general functional forms. We apply constrained first-order methods to optimize an appropriate selection criterion, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to sample from the prior. A step for computing the predictive distribution, involving convolution, is computed via either numerical integration, or via fast transform methods.
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